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AQA A Level Maths

Topic questions Statistics Conditional probability

Conditional probability

8 questions · 51 marks · about 1 hour

Conditional probability questions

AQA 7357 Conditional probability 8 questions

Paper 3 June 2025, Question 19 10 marks

Also involves Mutually exclusive and independent events · Sets and Venn diagrams

Three events X, Y and Z are such that

P(X) = P(Y) = 0.38 P(X ∪ Z) = 0.5 P [ (X ∪ Y) ' ] = 0.35 X and Z are mutually exclusive.

(a)

Find P(Z)

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 19(a)
(b)

Complete the Venn diagram.

X Y Z

0.27........

0.3

[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 19(b)
(c)

Find P[(X ∩ Y) ∪ (Y ∩ Z)]

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 19(c)
(d)

Find P(Y' | Z')

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 19(d)
(e)

Show that the events Y and Z are not independent of each other.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 19(e)

Paper 3 June 2023, Question 13 4 marks

There are two types of coins in a money box:

maths symbol 20% are bronze coins

maths symbol 80% are silver coins

Craig takes out a coin at random and places it back in the money box.

Craig then takes out a second coin at random.

(a)

Find the probability that both coins were of the same type.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 13(a)
(b)

Find the probability that both coins are bronze, given that at least one of the coins is bronze.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 13(b)

Paper 3 June 2022, Question 16 10 marks

Also involves Sets and Venn diagrams

A sample of 240 households were asked which, if any, of the following animals they own as pets:

Question 16, shown as an image

The results are shown in the table below.

Types of petCDTC and DC and TD and TC, D and T
Number of households153704548213217
(a)

Represent this information by fully completing the Venn diagram below.

Figure for question 16
[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 16(a)
(b)

A household is chosen at random from the sample.

(b)(i)

Find the probability that the household owns a cat only.

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 16(b)(i)
(b)(ii)

Find the probability that the household owns at least two of the three types of pet.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 16(b)(ii)
(b)(iii)

Find the probability that the household owns a cat or a dog or both, given that the household does not own a tortoise.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 16(b)(iii)
(c)

Determine whether a household owning a cat and a household owning a tortoise are independent of each other.

Fully justify your answer.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 16(c)

Paper 3 November 2021, Question 14 7 marks

Also involves Sets and Venn diagrams

A and B are two events such that

Question 14, shown as an image
(a)

Find P(A)

[4]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 14(a)
(b)

Find P(Bmaths symbolA)

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 14(b)
(c)

Determine if A and B are independent events.

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 14(c)

Paper 3 November 2020, Question 10 1 mark

Also involves Sets and Venn diagrams

The probabilities of events A, B and C are related, as shown in the Venn diagram below.

Figure for question 10

Find the value of x.

Circle your answer.

0.11 0.46 0.54 0.89

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 10

Paper 3 November 2020, Question 13 6 marks

Diedre is a head teacher in a school which provides primary, secondary and sixth-form education.

There are 200 teachers in her school.

The number of teachers in each level of education along with their gender is shown in the table below.

PrimarySecondarySixth-form
Male92423
Female358524
(a)

A teacher is selected at random. Find the probability that:

(a)(i)

the teacher is female

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 13(a)(i)
(a)(ii)

the teacher is not a sixth-form teacher.

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 13(a)(ii)
(b)

Given that a randomly chosen teacher is male, find the probability that this teacher is not a primary teacher.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 13(b)
(c)

Diedre wants to select three different teachers at random to be part of a school project.

Calculate the probability that all three chosen are secondary teachers.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 13(c)

Paper 3 June 2019, Question 14 7 marks

A survey was conducted into the health of 120 teachers.

The survey recorded whether or not they had suffered from a range of four health issues in the past year.

In addition, their physical exercise level was categorised as low, medium or high.

50 teachers had a low exercise level, 40 teachers had a medium exercise level and 30 teachers had a high exercise level.

The results of the survey are shown in the table below.

Low exerciseMedium exerciseHigh exercise
Back trouble14710
Stress38145
Depression921
Headache/Migraine455
(a)

Find the probability that a randomly selected teacher:

(a)(i)

suffers from back trouble and has a high exercise level;

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 14(a)(i)
(a)(ii)

suffers from depression.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 14(a)(ii)
(a)(iii)

suffers from stress, given that they have a low exercise level.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 14(a)(iii)
(b)

For teachers in the survey with a low exercise level, explain why the events ‘suffers from back trouble’ and ‘suffers from stress’ are not mutually exclusive.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 14(b)

Paper 3 June 2018, Question 14 6 marks

A teacher in a college asks her mathematics students what other subjects they are studying.

She finds that, of her 24 students:

12 study physics 8 study geography 4 study geography and physics

(a)

A student is chosen at random from the class.

Determine whether the event ‘the student studies physics’ and the event ‘the student studies geography’ are independent.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 14(a)
(b)

It is known that for the whole college:

the probability of a student studying mathematics is fraction

the probability of a student studying biology is fraction

the probability of a student studying biology given that they study mathematics is fraction

Calculate the probability that a student studies mathematics or biology or both.

[4]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 14(b)

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