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WJEC GCSE Maths

Topic questions Statistics The probability scale

The probability scale

80 questions · 337 marks · about 7.5 hours

The probability scale questions

WJEC 3300 The probability scale 80 questions

Unit 1: Non-calculator June 2025 Foundation tier, Question 7 3 marks

Eight cards with numbers on them are shown below.

Figure for question 7

Jo has four of these cards in her hand.

Figure for question 7

Dafydd chooses one of Jo’s four cards at random.

• There is an even chance that the number on the card is a square number.

• It is unlikely that the number on the card is a factor of 21.

Which four cards could Jo have in her hand?

Write the numbers on the four cards below.

Figure for question 7
[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 7

Unit 1: Non-calculator June 2025 Foundation tier, Question 17, also on the Intermediate paper 4 marks

There are 200 pupils in a school hall.

The pupils are from Year 7 to Year 11.

One of the pupils is chosen at random.

(a)

Complete the table below.

Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10Year 11
Probability0∙20∙30∙260∙14
[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 17(a)
(b)

How many of the pupils are in Year 10?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 17(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed June 2025 Foundation tier, Question 5 2 marks

Darren has a bag containing red counters, yellow counters and green counters.

Altogether, there are 8 counters in the bag.

Darren chooses a counter from the bag at random.

On the probability scale below, R shows the probability that Darren chooses a red counter.

Figure for question 5

There is 1 yellow counter in the bag.

(a)

On the probability scale, mark with a Y the probability that Darren chooses a yellow

counter.

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 5(a)
(b)

On the probability scale, mark with a G the probability that Darren chooses a green

counter.

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 5(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator June 2025 Intermediate tier, Question 7, also on the Foundation paper 4 marks

There are 200 pupils in a school hall.

The pupils are from Year 7 to Year 11.

One of the pupils is chosen at random.

(a)

Complete the table below.

Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10Year 11
Probability0∙20∙30∙260∙14
[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 7(a)
(b)

How many of the pupils are in Year 10?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 7(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed November 2024 Foundation tier, Question 3 3 marks

Cerys chooses a card at random from three different sets of four cards.

In each part, write numbers on the four cards to make the statement true.

(a)

It is impossible that the card Cerys chooses will be a 7.

Figure for question 3
[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 3(a)
(b)

It is likely that the card Cerys chooses will be a 7.

Figure for question 3
[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 3(b)
(c)

There is an even chance that Cerys chooses a number less than 7.

Figure for question 3
[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 3(c)

Unit 1: Non-calculator November 2024 Higher tier, Question 6 5 marks

Figure for question 6
(a)
Question 6, shown as an image
Figure for question 6
[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 6(a)
(b)

Find the probability that Evan and Jane both hit the centre of the target.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 6(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed November 2024 Higher tier, Question 18 4 marks

A bag contains 3 red counters, 5 blue counters and 7 yellow counters.

Sali takes three counters at random from the bag. These counters are not replaced.

Calculate the probability that at least two of the counters are the same colour.

[4]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 18

Unit 1: Non-calculator June 2024 Foundation tier, Question 4 2 marks

Matilda asked 10 of her friends which was their favourite sport.

They each chose one of rugby, hockey or cricket. Matilda showed the results of her survey in the bar chart below.

Figure for question 4

Matilda chooses one of her friends at random.

(a)

Describe the chance that the friend’s favourite sport is cricket.

Circle the best expression from those below.

impossible unlikely an even chance likely certain

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 4(a)
(b)

Describe the chance that the friend’s favourite sport is rugby.

Circle the best expression from those below.

impossible unlikely an even chance likely certain

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 4(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed June 2024 Foundation tier, Question 14, also on the Intermediate paper 4 marks

A children’s play area contains a large number of coloured balls.

Some are yellow, some are red, some are blue and the others are pink.

(a)

A ball is chosen at random from the play area.

Complete the table below to find the probability of choosing a pink ball.

ColourYellowRedBluePink
Probability0·540·120·25
[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 14(a)
(b)

There are 575 blue balls in the play area.

What is the total number of balls in the play area?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 14(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator June 2024 Intermediate tier, Question 15, also on the Higher paper 4 marks

A group of people hired two buses, Bus A and Bus B, to take them home from a party.

Bus A left the party at 11:00 p.m. Bus B left the party at midnight.

A person from the group is chosen at random. The probability that this person left the party on Bus A is fraction. The probability that this person sat on the left-hand side of the bus is equal to the probability that this person sat on the right-hand side.

(a)

Complete the following tree diagram.

Figure for question 15
[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 15(a)
(b)

What is the probability that this person sat on the right-hand side of the bus that left at

midnight?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 15(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed June 2024 Intermediate tier, Question 6, also on the Foundation paper 4 marks

A children’s play area contains a large number of coloured balls.

Some are yellow, some are red, some are blue and the others are pink.

(a)

A ball is chosen at random from the play area.

Complete the table below to find the probability of choosing a pink ball.

ColourYellowRedBluePink
Probability0·540·120·25
[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 6(a)
(b)

There are 575 blue balls in the play area.

What is the total number of balls in the play area?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 6(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator June 2024 Higher tier, Question 6, also on the Intermediate paper 4 marks

A group of people hired two buses, Bus A and Bus B, to take them home from a party.

Bus A left the party at 11:00 p.m. Bus B left the party at midnight.

A person from the group is chosen at random. The probability that this person left the party on Bus A is fraction. The probability that this person sat on the left-hand side of the bus is equal to the probability that this person sat on the right-hand side.

(a)

Complete the following tree diagram.

Figure for question 6
[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 6(a)
(b)

What is the probability that this person sat on the right-hand side of the bus that left at

midnight?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 6(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator November 2023 Foundation tier, Question 3 2 marks

Anna has 34 animals on her farm.

She has 10 goats, 20 sheep and 4 cows. Anna chooses one of these 34 animals at random.

(a)
Figure for question 3
[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 3(a)
(b)
Figure for question 3
[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 3(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator November 2023 Foundation tier, Question 16, also on the Intermediate paper 4 marks

There are many socks in a drawer.

The socks are red, green, blue or pink.

(a)

A sock is chosen at random from the drawer.

Complete the table below.

ColourRedGreenBluePink
Probability0·30·10·25
[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 16(a)
(b)

In the drawer, there are 20 pink socks.

How many red socks are there in the drawer?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 16(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed November 2023 Foundation tier, Question 11, also on the Intermediate paper 2 marks

Also involves Factors, multiples and primes

(a)

A pencil case contains some pens. One pen is chosen at random. The probability that the chosen pen is blue is 45%.

What is the probability that the chosen pen is not blue?

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 11(a)
(b)

Dewi throws a fair six-sided dice. What is the probability that Dewi throws a prime number?

Circle your answer.

Question 11, shown as an image
[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 11(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator November 2023 Intermediate tier, Question 6, also on the Foundation paper 4 marks

There are many socks in a drawer.

The socks are red, green, blue or pink.

(a)

A sock is chosen at random from the drawer.

Complete the table below.

ColourRedGreenBluePink
Probability0·30·10·25
[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 6(a)
(b)

In the drawer, there are 20 pink socks.

How many red socks are there in the drawer?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 6(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator November 2023 Intermediate tier, Question 16, also on the Higher paper 4 marks

Beti walks her dog to a local park and back home every day.

She can either walk along a footpath or along a pavement at the side of a road. The probability that Beti walks to the park along the footpath is fraction The probability that Beti walks home from the park along the road is fraction Her decisions on which routes to walk to and from the park are independent of each other.

(a)

Complete the tree diagram below.

Figure for question 16
[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 16(a)
(b)

Find the probability that Beti walks to and from the park along the footpath.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 16(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed November 2023 Intermediate tier, Question 2, also on the Foundation paper 2 marks

(a)

A pencil case contains some pens. One pen is chosen at random. The probability that the chosen pen is blue is 45%.

What is the probability that the chosen pen is not blue?

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 2(a)
(b)

Dewi throws a fair six-sided dice. What is the probability that Dewi throws a prime number?

Circle your answer.

Question 2, shown as an image
[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 2(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator November 2023 Higher tier, Question 8, also on the Intermediate paper 4 marks

Beti walks her dog to a local park and back home every day.

She can either walk along a footpath or along a pavement at the side of a road. The probability that Beti walks to the park along the footpath is fraction The probability that Beti walks home from the park along the road is fraction Her decisions on which routes to walk to and from the park are independent of each other.

(a)

Complete the tree diagram below.

Figure for question 8
[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 8(a)
(b)

Find the probability that Beti walks to and from the park along the footpath.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 8(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed November 2023 Higher tier, Question 17 5 marks

Figure for question 17
(a)

Calculate the probability that every child passes their ball to the left.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 17(a)
(b)

Calculate the probability that one of the three children does not receive a ball.

[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 17(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator June 2023 Foundation tier, Question 7 2 marks

Catrin has a bag containing only apples, bananas and lemons. She has 20 pieces of fruit altogether in her bag. Catrin chooses one piece of fruit at random from her bag.

The probability that she chooses each type of fruit is shown on the probability scale below, where • A represents apple • B represents banana • L represents lemon.

Figure for question 7

How many apples does Catrin have in her bag?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 7

Unit 1: Non-calculator June 2023 Intermediate tier, Question 17, also on the Higher paper 5 marks

Whitney walks, cycles or travels on the bus to work each day.

On any randomly chosen day: • the probability that she walks to work is 0·25 • the probability that she cycles to work is 0·45.

At work, the probability that there will be a fire drill on any randomly chosen day is 0·04.

How Whitney travels to work is independent of whether or not there is a fire drill.

(a)

Complete the tree diagram shown below.

Figure for question 17
[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 17(a)
(b)

On a randomly chosen day, what is the probability that Whitney walks to work and there

is a fire drill?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 17(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed June 2023 Intermediate tier, Question 12, also on the Higher paper 4 marks

A large number of prize tokens are placed in a box.

The tokens are identical in shape and size.

Gold, Silver, Bronze or No Prize is written on each token.

One token is chosen at random from the box. The table below shows the probability of choosing a Gold prize token and the probability of choosing a Silver prize token.

TokenGoldSilverBronzeNo Prize
Probability0·020·18
(a)

There are three times as many No Prize tokens in the box as there are Bronze prize tokens.

Complete the table.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 12(a)
(b)

There are 15 Gold prize tokens in the box.

How many Silver prize tokens are there in the box?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 12(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator June 2023 Higher tier, Question 7, also on the Intermediate paper 5 marks

Whitney walks, cycles or travels on the bus to work each day.

On any randomly chosen day: • the probability that she walks to work is 0·25 • the probability that she cycles to work is 0·45.

At work, the probability that there will be a fire drill on any randomly chosen day is 0·04.

How Whitney travels to work is independent of whether or not there is a fire drill.

(a)

Complete the tree diagram shown below.

Figure for question 7
[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 7(a)
(b)

On a randomly chosen day, what is the probability that Whitney walks to work and there

is a fire drill?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 7(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed June 2023 Higher tier, Question 2, also on the Intermediate paper 4 marks

A large number of prize tokens are placed in a box.

The tokens are identical in shape and size.

Gold, Silver, Bronze or No Prize is written on each token.

One token is chosen at random from the box. The table below shows the probability of choosing a Gold prize token and the probability of choosing a Silver prize token.

TokenGoldSilverBronzeNo Prize
Probability0·020·18
(a)

There are three times as many No Prize tokens in the box as there are Bronze prize tokens.

Complete the table.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 2(a)
(b)

There are 15 Gold prize tokens in the box.

How many Silver prize tokens are there in the box?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 2(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed June 2023 Higher tier, Question 13 5 marks

Catherine has three spinners, as shown below.

Figure for question 13

She spins each spinner once.

(a)

Calculate the probability that all three spinners land on prime numbers.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 13(a)
(b)

The numbers that the three spinners land on are added together.

Calculate the probability that the total is greater than 4.

[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 13(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed November 2022 Foundation tier, Question 10 2 marks

Mark is making an 8-sided spinner. All of the sections on his spinner are identical.

Mark is going to label each of the sections with one of three colours: blue (B), yellow (Y) or red (R).

Label the spinner below so that when the spinner is spun: • landing on red and landing on blue are equally likely AND

• it is likely that the spinner lands on yellow.

Figure for question 10
[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 10

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed November 2022 Foundation tier, Question 16, also on the Intermediate paper 4 marks

125 pupils were asked which one of four primary schools they attended.

(a)

One of the pupils is chosen at random.

Complete the table below to find the probability that the pupil chosen went to

Ysgol Bryn.

Ysgol AberYsgol BrynYsgol CastellYsgol Dewi
Probability0∙08.........................0∙20∙28
[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 16(a)
(b)

How many of the 125 pupils went to Ysgol Dewi?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 16(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed November 2022 Intermediate tier, Question 8, also on the Foundation paper 4 marks

125 pupils were asked which one of four primary schools they attended.

(a)

One of the pupils is chosen at random.

Complete the table below to find the probability that the pupil chosen went to

Ysgol Bryn.

Ysgol AberYsgol BrynYsgol CastellYsgol Dewi
Probability0∙08.........................0∙20∙28
[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 8(a)
(b)

How many of the 125 pupils went to Ysgol Dewi?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 8(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed November 2022 Intermediate tier, Question 18, also on the Higher paper 5 marks

Bag A and Bag B contain only red and blue balls.

The probability of choosing a red ball from Bag A is fraction. The probability of choosing a red ball from Bag B is 0∙25.

A ball is chosen at random from each bag.

(a)

Complete the tree diagram below.

Figure for question 18
[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 18(a)
(b)

Find the probability that the two balls chosen are the same colour.

[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 18(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed November 2022 Higher tier, Question 8, also on the Intermediate paper 5 marks

Bag A and Bag B contain only red and blue balls.

The probability of choosing a red ball from Bag A is fraction. The probability of choosing a red ball from Bag B is 0∙25.

A ball is chosen at random from each bag.

(a)

Complete the tree diagram below.

Figure for question 8
[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 8(a)
(b)

Find the probability that the two balls chosen are the same colour.

[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 8(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator June 2022 Foundation tier, Question 2 2 marks

(a)

Tim chooses one letter at random from the word TOMATO.

Describe the chance that Tim chooses the letter T.

Circle the correct expression from those given below.

impossible unlikely an even chance likely certain

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 2(a)
(b)

Megan chooses one letter at random from the word BANANA.

Describe the chance that Megan chooses the letter A.

Circle the correct expression from those given below.

impossible unlikely an even chance likely certain

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 2(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator June 2022 Foundation tier, Question 16, also on the Intermediate paper 3 marks

(a)

A bag contains red balls, green balls and yellow balls. The number of green balls is equal to the number of yellow balls.

Mali picks one ball from the bag at random. The probability that she will pick a red ball is 0·3.

Find the probability that Mali will pick a yellow ball.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 16(a)
(b)

A different bag contains 10 balls. Some of the balls in the bag are blue. All the other balls are white. Morgan picks a ball from the bag at random. He says,

Figure for question 16

Explain why Morgan cannot be correct.

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 16(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator June 2022 Intermediate tier, Question 6, also on the Foundation paper 3 marks

(a)

A bag contains red balls, green balls and yellow balls. The number of green balls is equal to the number of yellow balls.

Mali picks one ball from the bag at random. The probability that she will pick a red ball is 0·3.

Find the probability that Mali will pick a yellow ball.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 6(a)
(b)

A different bag contains 10 balls. Some of the balls in the bag are blue. All the other balls are white. Morgan picks a ball from the bag at random. He says,

Figure for question 6

Explain why Morgan cannot be correct.

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 6(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator June 2022 Intermediate tier, Question 14, also on the Higher paper 6 marks

A and B are independent events.

The probability of event A occurring is 0·6. The probability of event A and event B occurring is 0·48.

(a)
Figure for question 14 Figure for question 14
[4]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 14(a)
(b)

Calculate the probability of neither event A nor event B occurring.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 14(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator June 2022 Higher tier, Question 4, also on the Intermediate paper 6 marks

A and B are independent events.

The probability of event A occurring is 0·6. The probability of event A and event B occurring is 0·48.

(a)
Figure for question 4 Figure for question 4
[4]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 4(a)
(b)

Calculate the probability of neither event A nor event B occurring.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 4(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator June 2022 Higher tier, Question 17 5 marks

A bag contains 10 balls. 5 of the balls are blue, 4 of the balls are red and 1 ball is green. Three balls are chosen at random, one at a time, without replacement.

(a)

Calculate the probability that the first ball is blue, the second ball is red and the third ball is green.

You must show all your working.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 17(a)
(b)

Calculate the probability that at least one blue ball is chosen.

You must show all your working.

[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 17(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed November 2021 Foundation tier, Question 2 3 marks

A card is chosen at random from a set of four cards.

In each question, write numbers on the four cards to make each of the following statements true.

(a)

It is certain that the chosen card will be a 5.

Figure for question 2
[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 2(a)
(b)

It is an even chance that the chosen card will be a 3.

Figure for question 2
[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 2(b)
(c)

It is unlikely that the chosen card will be a 2.

Figure for question 2
[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 2(c)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed November 2021 Foundation tier, Question 17, also on the Intermediate paper 5 marks

Also involves Probability experiments and frequency

Geraint is running a game in a school fair. A large number of balls are placed in a box. Each of the balls is one of three colours: bronze, silver or gold. In the game, a ball is chosen at random from the box. The table below shows the probability of choosing a bronze ball and the probability of choosing a silver ball.

ColourBronzeSilverGold
Probability0·680·22

In the game, each person pays £2 to choose a ball at random from the box. The ball is then returned to the box.

The person wins £3 if a silver ball is chosen. The person wins £8 if a gold ball is chosen. There is no prize for choosing a bronze ball.

100 people each play the game once.

How much profit would you expect Geraint to make?

You must show all your working.

[5]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 17

Unit 1: Non-calculator November 2021 Intermediate tier, Question 16, also on the Higher paper 5 marks

A group of people have put their names forward to carry the Welsh flag at a sporting event.

Each person lives in North Wales, Mid Wales or South Wales.

One person from the group is chosen at random. The probability of choosing a person who lives in North Wales is 0·3. The probability of choosing a person who lives in Mid Wales is 0·25.

The probability of choosing a person who is under 18 years old is 0·2.

The people’s ages are independent of where they live.

(a)
Figure for question 16 Figure for question 16 Figure for question 16
[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 16(a)
(b)

What is the probability of choosing a person who lives in South Wales and is under

18 years old?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 16(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed November 2021 Intermediate tier, Question 8, also on the Foundation paper 5 marks

Geraint is running a game in a school fair. A large number of balls are placed in a box. Each of the balls is one of three colours: bronze, silver or gold. In the game, a ball is chosen at random from the box. The table below shows the probability of choosing a bronze ball and the probability of choosing a silver ball.

ColourBronzeSilverGold
Probability0·680·22

In the game, each person pays £2 to choose a ball at random from the box. The ball is then returned to the box.

The person wins £3 if a silver ball is chosen. The person wins £8 if a gold ball is chosen. There is no prize for choosing a bronze ball.

100 people each play the game once.

How much profit would you expect Geraint to make?

You must show all your working.

[5]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 8

Unit 1: Non-calculator November 2021 Higher tier, Question 7, also on the Intermediate paper 5 marks

A group of people have put their names forward to carry the Welsh flag at a sporting event.

Each person lives in North Wales, Mid Wales or South Wales.

One person from the group is chosen at random. The probability of choosing a person who lives in North Wales is 0·3. The probability of choosing a person who lives in Mid Wales is 0·25.

The probability of choosing a person who is under 18 years old is 0·2.

The people’s ages are independent of where they live.

(a)
Figure for question 7 Figure for question 7 Figure for question 7
[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 7(a)
(b)

What is the probability of choosing a person who lives in South Wales and is under

18 years old?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 7(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator November 2021 Higher tier, Question 18 5 marks

Figure for question 18

Three of the seven cards shown above are selected at random, without being replaced.

(a)

Find the probability that the first card selected is a 3, the second is a 4 and the third is

a 5.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 18(a)
(b)

Find the probability that the sum of the numbers selected is greater than 9.

[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 18(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator November 2020 Foundation tier, Question 18 4 marks

80 cards are placed in a box. Each card shows a picture of one of four islands near the coast of Wales: Bardsey Island, Ramsey Island, Skomer Island or Puffin Island.

A card is chosen at random from the box. The table below gives some of the probabilities that the chosen card shows a picture of a particular island.

IslandBardsey Island (Ynys Enlli)Ramsey Island (Ynys Dewi)Skomer Island (Ynys Sgomer)Puffin Island (Ynys Seiriol)
Probability0·40·150·25

How many of the 80 cards show a picture of Puffin Island?

You must show all your working.

[4]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 18

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed November 2020 Foundation tier, Question 3 3 marks

(a)
Figure for question 3
[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 3(a)
(b)

Dyfrig has a bag containing identically-sized coloured balls. There are ten black balls and ten green balls in the bag.

Dyfrig adds red balls to the bag.

Now, when Dyfrig selects a ball at random, there is an even chance of selecting a red ball.

How many red balls did Dyfrig add to the bag?

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 3(b)
(c)
Figure for question 3
[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 3(c)

Unit 1: Non-calculator November 2020 Intermediate tier, Question 17, also on the Higher paper 6 marks

Alice works for an engineering company.

A working day is chosen at random. From keeping a record over the last year, Alice knows that, for this working day,

• the probability that she travels to work by car is 0·7, • the probability that she arrives at work before 8:00 a.m. is 0·4, • her time of arrival is independent of how she travels to work.

(a)

Using the above information, draw and fully label a complete tree diagram.

You must include all probabilities.

[4]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 17(a)
(b)

What is the probability that, on the randomly-chosen working day, Alice travels to work by

car and arrives before 8:00 a.m.?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 17(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator November 2020 Higher tier, Question 7, also on the Intermediate paper 6 marks

Alice works for an engineering company.

A working day is chosen at random. From keeping a record over the last year, Alice knows that, for this working day,

• the probability that she travels to work by car is 0·7, • the probability that she arrives at work before 8:00 a.m. is 0·4, • her time of arrival is independent of how she travels to work.

(a)

Using the above information, draw and fully label a complete tree diagram.

You must include all probabilities.

[4]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 7(a)
(b)

What is the probability that, on the randomly-chosen working day, Alice travels to work by

car and arrives before 8:00 a.m.?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 7(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator November 2020 Higher tier, Question 19 8 marks

Dewi has a box containing eleven socks.

Six of the socks are red, four are green and one is yellow.

Early one morning, without switching on the light, Dewi selects two socks at random.

(a)

Calculate the probability that the first sock selected is yellow and the second is red.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 19(a)
(b)

Calculate the probability that Dewi selects two socks of the same colour.

[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 19(b)
(c)

Calculate the probability that at least one green sock is selected.

[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 19(c)

Unit 1: Non-calculator November 2019 Foundation tier, Question 5 2 marks

(a)

Sara has 20 balls in a bag. There are 15 blue balls and 5 red balls. Sara chooses a ball at random from her bag.

Describe the chance that Sara chooses a red ball from her bag.

Circle the correct expression from those given below.

impossible unlikely an even chance likely certain

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 5(a)
(b)

Gareth has some cards with a number written on each one. These are Gareth’s cards.

Figure for question 5

Gareth chooses one of his cards at random.

Describe the chance that Gareth chooses a card with an odd number on it.

Circle the correct expression from those given below.

impossible unlikely an even chance likely certain

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 5(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator November 2019 Foundation tier, Question 20, also on the Intermediate paper 4 marks

200 young people are taking part in a conference held at Aberystwyth.

(a)

One of the young people is chosen at random to be the chairperson.

Complete the table below to find the probability that the person chosen lives outside the

United Kingdom (UK).

North WalesMid WalesSouth WalesElsewhere in the UKOutside the UK
Probability0·20·30·250·15
[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 20(a)
(b)

How many of the 200 young people live in Mid Wales?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 20(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator November 2019 Intermediate tier, Question 11, also on the Foundation paper 4 marks

200 young people are taking part in a conference held at Aberystwyth.

(a)

One of the young people is chosen at random to be the chairperson.

Complete the table below to find the probability that the person chosen lives outside the

United Kingdom (UK).

North WalesMid WalesSouth WalesElsewhere in the UKOutside the UK
Probability0·20·30·250·15
[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 11(a)
(b)

How many of the 200 young people live in Mid Wales?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 11(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator November 2019 Intermediate tier, Question 17, also on the Higher paper 6 marks

Dylan is having a weekend break in Wrexham.

The probability that he will visit Erddig Gardens is 0·7. The probability of Dylan going to the Bersham Heritage Centre is independent of him visiting Erddig Gardens.

The probability that he visits Erddig Gardens and goes to the Bersham Heritage Centre is 0·28.

(a)

Complete the following tree diagram.

Figure for question 17
[4]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 17(a)
(b)

Calculate the probability that Dylan visits Erddig Gardens but does not go to the Bersham

Heritage Centre.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 17(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator November 2019 Higher tier, Question 6, also on the Intermediate paper 6 marks

Also involves Fractions, decimals and percentages

Dylan is having a weekend break in Wrexham.

The probability that he will visit Erddig Gardens is 0·7. The probability of Dylan going to the Bersham Heritage Centre is independent of him visiting Erddig Gardens.

The probability that he visits Erddig Gardens and goes to the Bersham Heritage Centre is 0·28.

(a)

Complete the following tree diagram.

Figure for question 6
[4]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 6(a)
(b)

Calculate the probability that Dylan visits Erddig Gardens but does not go to the Bersham

Heritage Centre.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 6(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed November 2019 Higher tier, Question 14 5 marks

The following twelve cards are placed in a box.

Figure for question 14

Three cards are chosen at random from the box at the same time.

(a)

Calculate the probability that the three cards drawn are all the letter ‘C’.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 14(a)
(b)

The letters A, E and O are vowels. All the other letters on these cards are consonants.

Calculate the probability that the three cards drawn include at least one consonant and at

least one vowel.

[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 14(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator June 2019 Intermediate tier, Question 18, also on the Higher paper 6 marks

Leah is visiting Cardiff.

The probability that she will go on a tour bus is 0·3. The probability of Leah seeing a show at the Millennium Centre is independent of her going on a tour bus.

The probability that she goes on a tour bus and sees a show at the Millennium Centre is 0·24.

(a)

Complete the following tree diagram.

Figure for question 18
[4]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 18(a)
(b)

Calculate the probability that Leah does not go on a tour bus and does not see a show at

the Millennium Centre.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 18(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator June 2019 Higher tier, Question 8, also on the Intermediate paper 6 marks

Leah is visiting Cardiff.

The probability that she will go on a tour bus is 0·3. The probability of Leah seeing a show at the Millennium Centre is independent of her going on a tour bus.

The probability that she goes on a tour bus and sees a show at the Millennium Centre is 0·24.

(a)

Complete the following tree diagram.

Figure for question 8
[4]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 8(a)
(b)

Calculate the probability that Leah does not go on a tour bus and does not see a show at

the Millennium Centre.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 8(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator June 2019 Higher tier, Question 18 5 marks

A box contains 4 yellow cards and 6 red cards.

Three cards are chosen at random, one at a time, without replacement.

(a)

Calculate the probability that the first two cards are yellow and the third card is red.

You must show all your working.

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 18(a)
(b)

Calculate the probability that at least one yellow card is chosen.

[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 18(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator November 2018 Foundation tier, Question 8 3 marks

(a)
Figure for question 8
[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 8(a)
(b)

Jane has a different set of cards. These are Jane’s cards.

Figure for question 8

Jane chooses a card at random from her set of cards. On the probability scale below, mark the points A and B where:

(b)(i)

A is the probability of Jane choosing a number less than 10,

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 8(b)(i)
(b)(ii)

B is the probability of Jane choosing the number 15.

Question 8, shown as an image
[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 8(b)(ii)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed November 2018 Intermediate tier, Question 17, also on the Higher paper 6 marks

Alwena regularly travels from Anglesey to Cardiff to attend meetings.

For each meeting, she chooses one of three ways to travel: by plane, train or car. The probability of a meeting being held on a Saturday is 0.08. The probability that Alwena travels by plane to a meeting is 0.15. The probability that she travels by train is 0.45. Her decision on how to travel is independent of the day on which the meeting is held.

(a)

Complete the following tree diagram.

Figure for question 17
[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 17(a)
(b)

A meeting is chosen at random. Calculate the probability that the meeting is held on a Saturday and that Alwena travels

by plane or by car.

[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 17(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed November 2018 Higher tier, Question 8, also on the Intermediate paper 6 marks

Alwena regularly travels from Anglesey to Cardiff to attend meetings.

For each meeting, she chooses one of three ways to travel: by plane, train or car. The probability of a meeting being held on a Saturday is 0.08. The probability that Alwena travels by plane to a meeting is 0.15. The probability that she travels by train is 0.45. Her decision on how to travel is independent of the day on which the meeting is held.

(a)

Complete the following tree diagram.

Figure for question 8
[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 8(a)
(b)

A meeting is chosen at random. Calculate the probability that the meeting is held on a Saturday and that Alwena travels

by plane or by car.

[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 8(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator June 2018 Foundation tier, Question 2 2 marks

(a)

Mai has a box of 60 different beads. There are 40 red beads in the box. Mai chooses a bead at random from the box.

Describe the chance that Mai chooses a red bead.

Circle the correct expression from those given below.

impossible unlikely an even chance likely certain

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 2(a)
(b)

Ifan has a box of 12 cakes. There are 6 chocolate cakes and the rest are lemon cakes. Ifan chooses a cake at random from the box.

Describe the chance that Ifan chooses a lemon cake.

Circle the correct expression from those given below.

impossible unlikely an even chance likely certain

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 2(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator June 2018 Foundation tier, Question 13 4 marks

A bag contains a number of different coloured balls.

A ball is selected at random from the bag. The probability of selecting a blue ball is 0.3.

(a)
Figure for question 13
[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 13(a)
(b)
Figure for question 13
[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 13(b)
(c)

There are 50 balls in the bag.

How many of them are blue?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 13(c)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed June 2018 Foundation tier, Question 14 4 marks

A travel company offers the following holiday options.

Figure for question 14
(a)

List all the possible different combinations of holiday options that the company offers.

One has been done for you.

Question 14, shown as an image

Summer Cottage Train

[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 14(a)
(b)

A holiday is chosen at random from all the different combinations on offer. P is the probability that the chosen holiday is a

Summer holiday, staying in a Cottage and travelling by Train.

Mark the point P on the probability scale shown below.

0 1

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 14(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed June 2018 Foundation tier, Question 20, also on the Intermediate paper 4 marks

A box contains many discs, identical in shape and size.

A picture of one of four Welsh castles is printed on each disc.

(a)

A disc is chosen at random from the box. Complete the table below to find the probability of choosing a disc showing Dinefwr

Figure for question 20
[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 20(a)
(b)

In the box, there were 522 discs showing a picture of Caernarfon Castle.

How many of the discs showed a picture of Harlech Castle?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 20(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator June 2018 Intermediate tier, Question 4 4 marks

A bag contains a number of different coloured balls.

A ball is selected at random from the bag. The probability of selecting a blue ball is 0.3.

(a)

Why is the following statement incorrect?

Explain your answer clearly.

‘More than half the balls in the bag are blue.’

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 4(a)
(b)

What is the probability that a ball selected at random from the bag is not blue?

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 4(b)
(c)

There are 50 balls in the bag.

How many of them are blue?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 4(c)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed June 2018 Intermediate tier, Question 3 4 marks

A travel company offers the following holiday options.

Figure for question 3
(a)

List all the possible different combinations of holiday options that the company offers.

One has been done for you.

Question 3, shown as an image

Summer Cottage Train

[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 3(a)
(b)
Figure for question 3
[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 3(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed June 2018 Intermediate tier, Question 10, also on the Foundation paper 4 marks

A box contains many discs, identical in shape and size.

A picture of one of four Welsh castles is printed on each disc.

(a)

A disc is chosen at random from the box. Complete the table below to find the probability of choosing a disc showing Dinefwr

Figure for question 10
[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 10(a)
(b)

In the box, there were 522 discs showing a picture of Caernarfon Castle.

How many of the discs showed a picture of Harlech Castle?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 10(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed June 2018 Intermediate tier, Question 16, also on the Higher paper 5 marks

Figure for question 16
(a)

Complete the tree diagram shown below.

Gender Transport

Figure for question 16
[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 16(a)
(b)

The person chosen at random receives a gift voucher. What is the probability that this person is female and travelled up the mountain by train?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 16(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed June 2018 Higher tier, Question 6, also on the Intermediate paper 5 marks

Figure for question 6
(a)

Complete the tree diagram shown below.

Gender Transport

Figure for question 6
[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 6(a)
(b)

The person chosen at random receives a gift voucher. What is the probability that this person is female and travelled up the mountain by train?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 6(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed November 2017 Intermediate tier, Question 16, also on the Higher paper 5 marks

All the members of a farming club visited the Royal Welsh Agricultural Show.

They all travelled to the show either by bus or by car. None of them visited the show on more than one day. The decision to travel by car or by bus was independent of the day of the visit.

A member of the club was selected at random. The probability that this member travelled by bus was 0·87. The probability that this member visited the show on the first day was. fraction

(a)
Figure for question 16
[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 16(a)
(b)

What is the probability that a member, chosen at random, was not one of those who

travelled by bus on the first day of the show?

[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 16(b)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed November 2017 Higher tier, Question 8, also on the Intermediate paper 5 marks

All the members of a farming club visited the Royal Welsh Agricultural Show.

They all travelled to the show either by bus or by car. None of them visited the show on more than one day. The decision to travel by car or by bus was independent of the day of the visit. A member of the club was selected at random. The probability that this member travelled by bus was 0·87. The probability that this member visited the show on the first day was. fraction

(a)
Figure for question 8
[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 8(a)
(b)

What is the probability that a member, chosen at random, was not one of those who

travelled by bus on the first day of the show?

[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 8(b)

Unit 1: Non-calculator June 2017 Intermediate tier, Question 10 6 marks

Ceri has a set of cards.

Each of her cards is labelled North, East, South or West.

(a)

Ceri chooses one card at random from her set of cards. Complete the table below to find the probability of Ceri choosing a card labelled West.

LabelNorthEastSouthWest
Probability0.40.250.2
[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 10(a)
(b)

Ceri chooses one card at random from her set of cards.

What is the probability that the card is labelled East or South?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 10(b)
(c)

Sasha has an identical set of cards. Ceri and Sasha each choose one card at random from their set of cards.

What is the probability that they both choose a card labelled North?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 10(c)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed June 2017 Intermediate tier, Question 17, also on the Higher paper 5 marks

100 boxes each contain 10 balls.

45 of the boxes are labelled A. They each contain 7 black balls and 3 white balls.

25 of the boxes are labelled B. They each contain 4 black balls and 6 white balls.

The rest of the boxes are labelled C. They each contain 8 black balls and 2 white balls.

In a game, a player chooses a box at random, and then chooses a ball at random from that box.

(a)

Complete the tree diagram shown below.

Figure for question 17
[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 17(a)
(b)

What is the probability that a player will select a black ball?

[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 17(b)
(c)

If a large number of people played the game, approximately what fraction of them would you expect to choose a white ball?

Circle your answer.

Question 17, shown as an image
[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 17(c)

Unit 1: Non-calculator June 2017 Higher tier, Question 17 6 marks

Also involves Fractions

A bag contains 6 red blocks, 4 green blocks and 2 yellow blocks.

Three blocks are taken from the bag, at random, without replacement.

(a)

What is the probability that the first block removed is red, the second is green and the

third is yellow?

[2]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 17(a)
(b)

Calculate the probability that all three blocks will be the same colour.

[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 17(b)
(c)

Write down the probability that the three blocks will not be the same colour.

[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 17(c)

Unit 2: Calculator-allowed June 2017 Higher tier, Question 7, also on the Intermediate paper 5 marks

100 boxes each contain 10 balls.

45 of the boxes are labelled A. They each contain 7 black balls and 3 white balls.

25 of the boxes are labelled B. They each contain 4 black balls and 6 white balls.

The rest of the boxes are labelled C. They each contain 8 black balls and 2 white balls.

In a game, a player chooses a box at random, and then chooses a ball at random from that box.

(a)

Complete the tree diagram shown below.

Figure for question 7
[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 7(a)
(b)

What is the probability that a player will select a black ball?

[3]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 7(b)
(c)

If a large number of people played the game, approximately what fraction of them would you expect to choose a white ball?

Circle your answer.

Question 7, shown as an image
[1]
Reveal mark scheme Mark scheme for question 7(c)

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